Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis
English
By (author): Board on Environmental Change and Society Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council
Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental eventsslowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.
Table of Contents- Front Matter
- Summary
- 1 Climate Change as a National Security Concern
- 2 Climate Change, Vulnerability, and National Security: A Conceptual Framework
- 3 Potentially Disruptive Climate Events
- 4 How Climate Events Can Lead to Social and Political Stresses
- 5 Climate Events and National Security Outcomes
- 6 Methods for Assessing National Security Threats
- References
- Appendix A: Committee Member and Staff Biographies
- Appendix B: Briefings Received by the Committee
- Appendix C: Method for Developing Figure 3-1
- Appendix D: Statistical Methods for Assessing Probabilities of Extreme Events
- Appendix E: Foundations for Monitoring ClimateSecurity Connections