At a Crossroads

Globalization proceeds apace, taking on new forms that impact global economic, financial and social processes. Interdependence is not simply strengthening the range of possibilities for national economies to participate in, and advantage of, these developments, but expanding the opportunities that are available to them. The question is how do states take advantage of these global developments. Russia is no exception. Although it actively participates in the globalization process, it is, however, confronting greater economic, technological, structural and institutional problems than other countries. At the same time, there is dwindling hope for favourable conditions to continue in global energy markets, which are crucial to the Russian economy. These problems exist alongside the risk that the widening gap between Russia and other economies in terms of economic performance and technological development and growth will continue. Russia now stands at the crossroads of either overcoming or exacerbating these current challenges. This choice dictates the current realities of pax economica. Moscow must, in the very near future, make meaningful, if not fundamental, decisions aimed at further opening its economy, improving its institutions, and strengthening its international ties. This task is made more difficult by Russia's weakening competitiveness and by its ambiguous position on the international division of labour. The old model of Russian development has been exhausted and a new one must be chosen. Russia's choice at this juncture will determine the future of its economic development for many years to come.

Sergey Kulik is the director for International Studies at the Institute of Contemporary Development in Russia. He is also a member of the Scientific Council of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations.

Nikita Maslennikov is the director for projects in economy and finance at the Institute of Contemporary Development in Russia. He was the assistant for the economy ot the Russian prime minister from 1993 to 1998. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics.

Igor Yurgens is the chairman of the management board of the Institute of Contemporary Development in Russia and is the president of the all-Russian Insurance Association. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics.