Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
Regular price
€112.99
14 days return policy
Shipping & Delivery
A01=Martha Whitesmith
Age Group_Uncategorized
Age Group_Uncategorized
analysis of competing hypotheses
Author_Martha Whitesmith
automatic-update
Category1=Non-Fiction
Category=JMR
Category=JPS
Category=JPSH
cognitive bias
confirmation bias
COP=United Kingdom
Delivery_Delivery within 10-20 working days
epistemology
eq_bestseller
eq_isMigrated=2
eq_nobargain
eq_non-fiction
eq_society-politics
intelligence
intelligence analysis
intelligence failures
Language_English
PA=Available
Price_€50 to €100
PS=Active
serial position effects
softlaunch
structured analytical techniques
Product details
- ISBN 9781474466349
- Weight: 604g
- Dimensions: 156 x 234mm
- Publication Date: 15 Sep 2020
- Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
- Publication City/Country: GB
- Product Form: Hardback
- Language: English
Secure
checkout
Fast Shipping
Easy returns
Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach
Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligence analysisExplains the underlying causes cognitive biases, based on meta-analyses of existing researchShows that identifying the ideal conditions for intelligence analysis is a more effective way of reducing the risk of cognitive bias than the use of ACH
Recent high-profile intelligence failures – from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war – prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK’s Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Martha Whitesmith is Senior Intelligence Analyst at the Ministry of Defence.
