Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis
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A01=Martha Whitesmith
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analysis of competing hypotheses
Author_Martha Whitesmith
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Category1=Non-Fiction
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Category=JPS
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cognitive bias
confirmation bias
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epistemology
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intelligence
intelligence analysis
intelligence failures
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structured analytical techniques
Product details
- ISBN 9781474466356
- Dimensions: 156 x 234mm
- Publication Date: 30 May 2022
- Publisher: Edinburgh University Press
- Publication City/Country: GB
- Product Form: Paperback
- Language: English
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Recent high-profile intelligence failures from 9/11 to the 2003 Iraq war prove that cognitive bias in intelligence analysis can have catastrophic consequences. This book critiques the reliance of Western intelligence agencies on the use of a method for intelligence analysis developed by the CIA in the 1990s, the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). The author puts ACH to the test in an experimental setting against two key cognitive biases with unique empirical research facilitated by UK's Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis unit at the Cabinet Office, and finds that the theoretical basis of the ACH method is significantly flawed. Combining the insight of a practitioner with over 11 years of experience in intelligence with both philosophical theory and experimental research, the author proposes an alternative approach to mitigating cognitive bias that focuses on creating the optimum environment for analysis, challenging current leading theories.
Martha Whitesmith is Senior Intelligence Analyst at the Ministry of Defence.
