Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks
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A01=Bilal M. Ayyub
Accident Probability
aggregate
Aggregating Expert Opinions
Author_Bilal M. Ayyub
Basic Assignment
blind
Blind Ignorance
Category=GPQ
Category=GPS
combining
Combining Expert Opinions
Crisp Sets
Cumulative Distribution Function
decision science
Delphi Method
eq_isMigrated=1
eq_isMigrated=2
eq_nobargain
expert consensus techniques
Expert Opinion Elicitation
expertopinion
Expertopinion Elicitation
failure
fuzzy
Fuzzy Arithmetic
Fuzzy Failure
Fuzzy Number
Fuzzy Relation
Fuzzy Set
High High High High High
ignorance
Membership Function
Monotone Measures
occurrence
probabilistic modeling
probabilities
reliability engineering
Residential Structural Types
risk analysis methods
Rough Set Approximation
Rough Sets
set
Source System
Trapezoidal Fuzzy Membership Functions
Triangular Fuzzy Number
uncertainty modeling for scientific research
uncertainty quantification
Work Breakdown Structure
Product details
- ISBN 9780849310874
- Weight: 770g
- Dimensions: 156 x 234mm
- Publication Date: 27 Jun 2001
- Publisher: Taylor & Francis Inc
- Publication City/Country: US
- Product Form: Hardback
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Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions, and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.
Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks illuminates those uncertainties and builds a foundation of philosophy, background, methods, and guidelines that helps its readers effectively execute the elicitation process. Based on the first-hand experiences of the author, the book is filled with illustrations, examples, case studies, and applications that demonstrate not only the methods and successes of expert opinion elicitation, but also its pitfalls and failures.
Studies show that in the future, analysts, engineers, and scientists will need to solve ever more complex problems and reach decisions with limited resources. This will lead to an increased reliance on the proper treatment of uncertainty and on the use of expert opinions. Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks will help prepare you to better understand knowledge and ignorance, to successfully elicit expert opinions, to select appropriate expressions of those opinions, and to use various methods to model and aggregate opinions.
