Evidence and the Politics of Reform

Indonesia is often praised as a success story of welfare reform in the developing world. Many have credited democratization for driving this transformation, arguing that a more open political system made governments more responsive to public demands for broader welfare provisions. Yet this explanation overlooks the deeper, messier realities behind critical policy choices. Why did Indonesia, against political instincts, cut popular fuel subsidies? Why invest in complex, expensive social welfare infrastructure? Why build elaborate systems for targeting the poor instead of opting for faster, simpler universal transfers during times of crisis? Evidence and the Politics of Reform reveals that Indonesia's reforms were rarely the product of pure benevolence or the rational application of research evidence. More often, they were born out of intense political pressure, urgent fiscal realities, and a narrowing of options - and at times, even the best-laid reform models faltered. Through eight in-depth case studies spanning 1998 to 2024, this book explores how Indonesia navigated these challenges. It demystifies the idea of "evidence-based policymaking," showing that evidence alone seldom drives decisions; politics, trust, timing, and institutional dynamics often play just as critical a role. Rich in firsthand insights and grounded in real-world complexity, Evidence and the Politics of Reform offers a compelling look at how major reforms happen - and what it takes to turn good evidence into lasting policy change.

Sudarno Sumarto is an economist and academic, currently an Honorary Senior Fellow at the SMERU Research Institute and formerly a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University's Center for International Development and at Stanford University's Shorenstein APARC. He has taught at leading Indonesian institutions, including Bogor Agricultural University and the University of Indonesia. Sumarto's research focuses on poverty, labor, and social protection, with over 60 publications in top journals such as the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, and Journal of Development Economics.