Historical Dynamics
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A01=Peter Turchin
Agrarian society
Alemanni
Asabiyyah
Austrasia
Author_Peter Turchin
Avars (Caucasus)
Carolingian dynasty
Carrying capacity
Case study
Category=NHAH
Category=PBT
Category=PBWH
Chiefdom
Collective action
Competition
Cumans
Decentralization
Derivative
Differential equation
Dynamical system
Eastern Europe
Empirical research
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eq_history
eq_isMigrated=1
eq_isMigrated=2
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Ethnic group
Ethnogenesis
Explanation
Failed state
Free parameter
Golden Horde
Group selection
Historical sociology
Holy Roman Empire
Hypothesis
Ibn Khaldun
Ideology
Income
Initial condition
Institution
Jack Goldstone
Khazars
Kievan Rus'
Literature
Logistic function
Merovingian dynasty
Negative feedback
Ottoman Empire
Parameter
Peasant
Population decline
Population density
Population dynamics
Population growth
Prediction
Probability
Proportionality (mathematics)
Quantity
Randall Collins
Religious conversion
Research program
Result
Saxons
Slavs
Social capital
Social dynamics
Sociology
Tax
The Other Hand
Theory
Threshold model
Variable (mathematics)
Visigoths
War
Warfare
Western Europe
World-system
Product details
- ISBN 9780691116693
- Weight: 510g
- Dimensions: 152 x 235mm
- Publication Date: 19 Oct 2003
- Publisher: Princeton University Press
- Publication City/Country: US
- Product Form: Hardback
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Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history. Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy.
For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Peter Turchin is Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Connecticut. He is the author of "Quantitative Analysis of Movement" and "Complex Population Dynamics" (Princeton).
