Net Present Value and Risk Modelling for Projects

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A01=Martin Hopkinson
Author_Martin Hopkinson
Bow Tie Diagram
Business Cases
capital budgeting strategies
cash
Category=KJC
Category=KJMP
Category=KJMV6
Cumulative Probability Curve
Discount
Discount Factor
Discount Rate
eq_bestseller
eq_business-finance-law
eq_isMigrated=1
eq_isMigrated=2
eq_nobargain
eq_non-fiction
estimates
flow
forecasts
investment appraisal techniques
Life Cycle
Min Mode Max
Net Present
npv
NPV Forecast
NPV Method
NPV Model
NPV Risk
Peer Review
probabilistic forecasting
probability
Project Business Cases
project finance modelling
Project Specific Risk
quantitative risk analysis
rate
registers
Risk Decomposition
Risk Effect
Risk Estimating
Risk Model
specific
stochastic project evaluation methods
Systemic Risk
Tornado Diagrams
Triangular Probability Density Function
uncertainty quantification
Undiscounted Cash Flows
Variability Risks

Product details

  • ISBN 9781472457967
  • Weight: 317g
  • Dimensions: 174 x 246mm
  • Publication Date: 07 Apr 2016
  • Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
  • Publication City/Country: GB
  • Product Form: Paperback
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The Net Present Value (NPV) forecast lies at the heart of the business case on many projects. Martin Hopkinson's guide explains when, why and how NPV models should be built for projects and how this approach can be integrated with the risk management process.

NPV models tend to be used during the earliest phases of a project as the business case is being developed. Typically, these are the stages when uncertainty is at its highest and when the opportunities to influence the project's plan are at their greatest. This book shows how project financial forecasting and risk management principles can be used to both improve NPV forecasts and to shape the project solution into one that is risk-robust.

The text is sufficiently broad to be practicable for first-time users to employ the methods described. But it also contains insights into the process that are likely to be new to the majority of experienced practitioners. All users should find that the models used in this book will help to provide useful templates for exploiting the techniques that are used.

Martin Hopkinson is the Director of Risk Management Capability Limited and has 30 years’ experience as a project manager, project risk specialist and consultant. His experience has been gained across a wide variety of industries and engineering disciplines and includes multi-billion pound projects and programmes. Martin’s previous book The Project Risk Maturity Model , concerns the risk management process and his contributions to Association for Project Management guides such as Directing Change and Sponsoring Change reveal his belief in the importance of project governance and business case development. In this book he brings these subjects together by showing how NPV and risk modelling techniques can be used to optimise projects and support project approval decisions.

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