A01=Peter Turchin
A01=Sergey A. Nefedov
Acknowledgment (creative arts and sciences)
Age of Revolution
Agrarian society
Agricultural productivity
Agriculture
Aristocracy
Author_Peter Turchin
Author_Sergey A. Nefedov
Birth rate
Calculation
Cambridge University Press
Capita
Carrying capacity
Case study
Category=JHBD
Category=KCZ
Category=NHTB
Central Russia
Colonization
Commoner
Competition
Conspicuous consumption
Crown land
Debt
Demography
Denarius
Economic inequality
Economics
Elite
Elite overproduction
Employment
eq_bestseller
eq_business-finance-law
eq_history
eq_isMigrated=1
eq_isMigrated=2
eq_nobargain
eq_non-fiction
eq_society-politics
Failed state
Famine
Financial crisis
Household
Income
Inflation
J. (newspaper)
Jack Goldstone
Laborer
Landlord
Livonian War
Magnate
Marxism
Military service
Mortality rate
Nobility
Overpopulation
Peasant
Plebs
Population decline
Population density
Population dynamics
Population growth
Prediction
Price revolution
Roman Republic
Scarcity
Serfdom
Serfdom in Russia
Shortage
Social mobility
Social structure
Stagflation
Standard of living
Subsistence crisis
Sulla
Supply (economics)
Tax
The Other Hand
Urbanization
War
Warfare
Wealth
Year
Product details
- ISBN 9780691136967
- Weight: 652g
- Dimensions: 152 x 235mm
- Publication Date: 09 Aug 2009
- Publisher: Princeton University Press
- Publication City/Country: US
- Product Form: Hardback
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Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire.
Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.
Peter Turchin is professor of ecology and evolutionary biology and adjunct professor of mathematics at the University of Connecticut. Sergey A. Nefedov is senior research scientist at the Institute of History and Archaeology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ural Branch.
