A01=Jeffrey C. Bauer
advanced forecasting for policy change
Analog Forecasting
Author_Jeffrey C. Bauer
average
big
big data impact
business decision-making
business strategy
Category=KJ
Category=KJM
Chronic
CIO
Company's Long Term Performance
Company’s Long Term Performance
Consensus Forecast
CPA
Crystal Ball
data
dow
dynamics
economics
eq_bestseller
eq_business-finance-law
eq_isMigrated=1
eq_isMigrated=2
eq_nobargain
eq_non-fiction
Exchange Rate
Forecast Area
forecasting
Foreign Exchange Rate
futures analysis
Ground Weather Stations
Health Futurist
industrial
Introductory Geography Class
jones
Mathematical Expressions
Millennium BCE
MIT Press
National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration
NWP
organizational decision making
predicting
predictive
predictive analytics
Predictive Science
risk assessment methods
Ritual Human Sacrifices
science
strategic risk management
Strategic Time Frame
Superb
system
Vice Versa
Violates
Weather Forecasting
Product details
- ISBN 9781138409446
- Weight: 453g
- Dimensions: 152 x 229mm
- Publication Date: 27 Jul 2017
- Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
- Publication City/Country: GB
- Product Form: Hardback
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Clearly, concisely, and with many examples from public and private enterprise, Upgrading Leadership‘s Crystal Ball shows why predictions are usually wrong and presents a better way to look at the future forecasting. This book is essential-reading for anyone who needs to make the best possible strategic decisions for moving an organization forward in today‘s rapidly changing environment.Dr. Bauer supplies an insightful comparison of the two mainstream approaches for looking ahead. Although predicting and forecasting are usually used as synonyms for a single process, they are conceptually and methodologically quite different. He explains why everyday failure to operationalize these differences robs us of power to envision and pursue good futures, especially when we are headed in the wrong direction. Readers will learn the real-world value of distinguishing between predicting (extrapolating historical trends) and forecasting (estimating the probabilities of possibilities). Following a description of predictive modeling and a discussion of five reasons why it fails so often in current applications, Dr. Bauer explains the superiority of forecasting and how to do it. To complete readers understanding of the many compelling reasons for making the shift from predicting to forecasting, Upgrading Leadership‘s Crystal Ball presents a practical approach to strategic planning in unpredictable times. It concludes with an analysis of the future of big data and its likely impact on the future.Dr. Bauer is uniquely qualified to write this important book; he is trained in both predicting (economics) and forecasting (meteorology). Author of more than 250 publications, he is internationally recognized not only for long-term success in foretelling the future of medical science and health care, but also for successful innovations to create a better delivery system. This book distills the lessons garnered over his 40 ye
